New Zealand Journal of Ecology (2011) 35(2): 189- 190
Calculating the probability of absence using the Credible Interval Value
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A common question that arises when considering the results from a well-designed sampling programme for a rare or invasive species is: ‘Sampling has failed to detect a species that could have been present, so can we calculate the probability that it truly was absent during the sampling period?’ Noting that this invokes a Bayesian view of ‘probability’, which therefore must be accepted if the question is to be answered in the affirmative, we present a method of addressing it.