species distribution modelling

Population decline and extinction are often driven by multiple stressors. Since AD 1500, the predicted global extinction rates for birds is estimated to be at least 80-times higher than the long-term background average. Pāteke/brown teal (Anas chlorotis) is a threatened waterfowl endemic to Aotearoa New Zealand, with a current population of c. 2500, spread across two remnant populations and a handful of reintroduction sites. The decline of pāteke since the arrival of humans results from habitat loss and fragmentation, predation, and other anthropogenic interactions.

Non-native conifers constitute a significant threat to the ecology and biodiversity of many of New Zealand’s native ecosystems and species. From the top down, the potential distributions of non-native conifer species are governed by climate suitability, which alongside variables such as the availability of suitable habitats and a source of propagules determines whether an area of land will be susceptible to invasion by a given species.