simulation

Bovine tuberculosis in brushtail possums: models, dogma and data

Three different models of bovine tuberculosis (Tb) in brushtail possums were evaluated against their stated purpose, and testable assumptions and predictions evaluated against available data where possible. Not surprisingly, two of the models may be falsified based on currently available data with respect to either important model assumptions or predictions, and the third may suffer from being right for the wrong reason. This does not mean that these models are not useful.

Testing the power of an experiment to measure predator control and habitat complexity impacts on farmland bird abundance

In this study I assess the statistical power to detect a significantly greater increase in bird population size on treatment farms than on control farms given that there is a substantial treatment effect. Computer simulations of bird populations on New Zealand sheep/beef farms were used to generate significant changes in bird abundance from (a) controlling predation by introduced small mammals, (b) habitat structural complexity, and (c) an interaction of both.