model selection

Shrub encroachment in grassland environments is observed in many regions worldwide. However, in New Zealand, there is no consensus on the trend and magnitude of this phenomenon, and we lack empirical data to determine what environmental variables may promote shrub invasion. Here, we present a comprehensive study evaluating shrub cover change in a tussock water catchment in eastern Otago, New Zealand.

Three different models of bovine tuberculosis (Tb) in brushtail possums were evaluated against their stated purpose, and testable assumptions and predictions evaluated against available data where possible. Not surprisingly, two of the models may be falsified based on currently available data with respect to either important model assumptions or predictions, and the third may suffer from being right for the wrong reason. This does not mean that these models are not useful.